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Herald Sun Form Guide : October 10th 2009
heraldsun.com.au Herald Sun, Saturday, October 10, 2009 41 + + FB123 C M Y K DHS 10-OCT-2009 PAGE 41 FIRST www.tab.com.au Caulfield TODAY HERALD SUN SUPERFORM LIFTOUT PROS TALKING HOT JOCKS Go to whoa: Raheeb is drawn to lead and will take catching in today's Toorak. MIDNIGHT OIL with TIM HABEL TRACK: Good PENETROMETER: 5.0 RAIL: True LAST MEETING: 14m Sept 25 LAST TIME TRUE: Sept 10 RAINFALL: 10mm for week IRRIGATION: 17mm for week RADAR: Clear 1 Wide-open race to start the day as every runner has claims. GOVERNANCE (6) took on Group class and struck wet tracks after a Canterbury win and resumes here. He's in a top yard and is a big watch runner. TROUNCE (2) may be better suited at 1200m after a sound first-up run when favourite. KING PULSE (7) strolled home in his maiden after sitting outside the leader. ON-PACERS: King Pulse, Undercur- rent. SWOOPERS: Russian Heart, Trounce, Beyond Pardon, Orinoco, Governance. SUGGESTED BET: Governance each-way. 2 Good speed here from PHILDA (1), MONSIEUR FERAUD (5), LA ROCKET (7) and SILKY SMOOTH (8), who can set this up for LARRY'S NEVER LATE (4). He was a quality three-year-old last season who was most impressive winning first-up over 1400m at Sandown last campaign. ROMNEYA (2) is a classy mare who won with this weight last time and this is her pet trip. ON-PACERS: Philda, Monsieur Feraud, La Rocket, Silky Smooth. SWOOPERS: Romneya, Larry's Never Late, Arch Symbol. SUGGESTED BET: Larry's Never Late straight out, quinellas with 2, 6. 3 AVENUE (4) looks the winner at the set weights going on her impressive Champagne Stakes win over ROSTOVA (2), who will be fitter for the return bout. MARQUARDT (10), who is resuming, ran a top race in the Golden Slipper after good lead-up form and is a watch runner. HEADWAY (1) has drawn wide but is better suited back to 1200m. ON-PACERS: Avenue, Gibraltar Moon. SWOOPERS: Headway, Rostova, Marquardt. SUGGESTED BET: Avenue straight out.4 MORGAN DOLLAR (7) is not as good a horse as APACHE CAT (1) or probably WANTED (11), but over 1000m he can cause an upset. He looked the winner of the McEwen after sprinting quickly on the turn, only to be reeled in late by the high-class Nicconi. Apache Cat and Wanted both drop back from 1200m to 1000m but will take holding off. LUCKY SECRET (3) was just beaten by WILANDER (4) in this race last year and will run well again. Query runner is PAPRIKA (13), the Brisbane filly returning from surgery. She has form around Phelan Ready, who was runner-up in the Group 1 Manikato. ON-PACERS: Lucky Secret, Uncle Ivan. SWOOPERS: Apache Cat, Morgan Dollar, Wanted, Paprika. SUGGESTED BET: Morgan Dollar each-way. 5 Looks a match between WHOBEGOTYOU (6) and HEART OF DREAMS (7), who holds a 2-0 head-to-head advantage. This race will boil down to a tactical battle with DOURO VALLEY (4) the only obvious leader. He will probably try to repeat last year's tactics when he won after a slowly run first half then poured on the pressure for the last 800m. BAUGHURST (5) ran a terrific race in the Turnbull Stakes last week and is a definite top-four chance. ON-PACERS: Douro Valley SWOOPERS: Master O'Reilly, Baughurst, Whobegotyou, Heart Of Dreams. SUGGESTED BET: Quinella 6, 7. 6 Tough Toorak with any number of chances but you will get a great sight with RAHEEB (8). He is drawn to lead and was most impressive last week. He is yet to win at 1600m but ran fifth in this race last year and is going a lot better now. Among the other hopes are RACING TO WIN (1), who has the class to win despite the weight, BLACK PIRANHA (2), always competitive in Group 1s, GOLD SALUTE (6), MAGI- CAL PEARL (9) and RAFFAELLO (13) despite an unsuitable inside draw. ON-PACERS: King Mufhasa, Raheeb. SWOOPERS: Racing To Win, Black Piranha, Gold Salute, Magical Pearl, Raffaello. SUGGESTED BET: Raheeb each- way, box quinellas. 7 The tempo holds the key here. If it's a pressure race TRUSTING (6) and SO YOU THINK (7) will be ideally suited. A sit-sprint favours DENMAN (1) , MANHATTAN RAIN (2) and TICKETS (3). With CARRARA (4), STARSPANGLED- BANNER (5), NICASTRO (9) and Manhattan Rain sure to push forward, it should be a truly run race, paving the way for So You Think to overpower his rivals and give Bart Cummings a sixth win in the race. Note the blinkers go on So You Think. ON-PACERS: Denman, Manhattan Rain, Carrara, Starspangledbanner. SWOOPERS: Trusting, So You Think. SUGGESTED BET: So You Think each-way. 8 Crucial Caulfield Cup qualifying race for 11 runners but ALCOPOP (7), aiming at the Melbourne Cup, may shut the door on his rivals. He is an emerging staying talent similar to recent winners Master O'Reilly in 2007 and Leica Falcon in 2005. He was most impressive beat- ing home SHOCKING (13) at Moonee Valley. Both Shocking and HISSING SID (6) are ready for the 2400m now. Hissing Sid made his run with Caulfield Cup favourite Speed Gifted, covered more ground and was doing just as well on the line last time, which is a good formline. CAPECOVER (5) is proven at this level and was held up at Moonee Valley when stewards queried the ride. ON-PACERS: Zavite, Lady Avacan. SWOOPERS: Young Centaur, Capecover, Hissing Sid, Sand Hawk, Shocking, Precedence. SUGGESTED BET: Alcopop straight out9 Class mares RUSSETING (1) and CHAMPAGNE HARMONY (2) look well placed. Russeting has won her past two second-up and will obviously appreciate the huge class drop from the Group 1 Manikato. Champagne Harmony won the Yallambee Classic third-up last cam- paign and is ready to win. ABOUT READY (16) has a win over VELOCITEA (3) here at this trip and will be better suited on a firmer track at 1200m after her first-up run. Velocitea will need luck from her inside draw. ON-PACERS: Champagne Harmony, About Ready. SWOOPERS: Russeting, Velocitea, Tootsie SUGGESTED BET: Box quinellas 1, 2, 16. THE MAIL GUEST TIPSTER Tim Habel WIN Caulfield: Larry's Never Late (R2) is a classy galloper who is extra good fresh and will get the fast pace that he needs. Perfect bank builder for your Big6 jackpot flexi. Matt Stewart PLACE ALL-UP Caulfield: Go conservative but bold. Start with $20. Go all-up Larry's Never Late (R2), Tale Of Love (R3), Wanted (R4), Carrara (R7) and Young Centaur (R8), all the place. It's a longshot but, hey, you're risking only 20 bucks. Michael Manley PARLAY A Formula 2,3,4 and 4 bet for a $1 stake (cost $11) could be the best way to approach the program. Take Romneya (R2) into Apache Cat (R4), Whobegotyou (R5) and Denman (R7) all to win. Nick Quinn Win Eagle Farm: (R6 No. 3): Rasmussen (R6) is a speedy type who won impressively first-up at the same track and distance. Will be fitter for the run and should win today before venturing to Melbourne for some of the bigger spring sprint races. The BIG6 will operate on the following meetings. Caulfield gallops: Leg 1: Race 4: 2.00. Leg 2: Race 5: 2.40. Leg 3: Race 6: 3.20. Leg 4: Race 7: 4.00. Leg 5: Race 8: 4.40. Leg 6: Race 9: 5.20. Moonee Valley harness: Leg 1: Race 3: 7.30. Leg 2: Race 4: 8.02. Leg 3: Race 5: 8.33. Leg 4: Race 6: 9.02. Leg 5: Race 7: 9.30. Leg 6: Race 8: 10.00. The Meadows greyhounds: Leg 1: Race 4: 8.18. Leg 2: Race 5: 8.38. Leg 3: Race 6: 9.00. Leg 4: Race 7: 9.20. Leg 5: Race 8: 9.38. Leg 6: Race 9: 9.57. Paul Midolo State Manager Vic/Tas Yalumba Race 5 Caulfield No. 6 Whobegotyou Race 7 Caulfield No 1 Denman Alan Eskander BOOKMAKER DENMAN (Caul R7 No. 1): Seems to have all the answers. The draw has played his way and the other gun runners will have to run him down. That might be impossible. Rod Douglas TRAINER ORINOCO (Caul R1 No. 5): I reckon he's a good chance. He drew a terrible gate at the Valley and ran really well. I don't think this is any harder and he's drawn well. I'll be backing him each-way. LARRY'S NEVER LATE (Caul R2 No. 4): He's had a good break since Brisbane, which I think was the making of him. I don't know why but he flies fresh and loves Caulfield. I think he's got a terrific chance. HERE NO TEARS (Caul R3 No. 16): I'm not going to say she can beat the Avenues and Rostovas, but she's a very good filly. She's trialled well. I'd be putting her in your First 4s. Damien Oliver is in great form and has a solid book of rides which is headlined by Whobegotyou and star sprinter Apache Cat. THE MARKET $3.00 Damien Oliver $4.00 Craig Williams $4.20 Craig Newitt $8.00 Any other indiv. jockey $9.00 Kerrin McEvoy $11.00 Blake Shinn $14.00 Glen Boss $18.00 Corey Brown THE BANKERS ON PRECEDENT LARRY'S NEVER LATE (R2 No. 4) ON CLASS AVENUE (R3 No. 4) ON POTENTIAL ALCOPOP (R8 No. 7) $50 FLEXI BIG 6 FOR 13.02%: 1, 2, 3, 11/6, 7/6, 8, 9, 13/6, 7/ 6, 7/1, 2, 16 Peter Moody TRAINER TROUNCE (Caul R1 No. 2): He's an improver and I'm expecting him to run well. HEADWAY (Caul R3 No. 1): She's suited back to 1200m because she hasn't run a strong 1400m at her last two starts. AVENUE (Caul R3 No. 4): The trick is that there are one or two others who have gate speed. It's a matter of whether she can maybe come back a bit and settle. I think she can but she is still learning. WANTED (Caul R4 No. 11): He's there to run well. His run was massive at Moonee Valley and he's drawn to get a really nice run. PILLAR OF HERCULES (Caul R6 No. 17): It's a case of what you see is what you get with him. He'll get back and be running on. TICKETS (Caul R7 No. 3): He's in form at the right time. He's been set for the race and a few of these have had grand finals. My confidence has grown over the last three weeks. LA GOULUE (Caul R9 No. 10): She's drawn well and will be thereabouts. MOONDANCING (Caul R9 No. 13): Same as the other mare, in the mix.
October 9th 2009
October 12th 2009