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Herald Sun Form Guide : November 2nd 2009
72 Herald Sun, Monday, November 2, 2009 heraldsun.com.au + + + + FB123 C M Y K DHS 2-NOV-2009 PAGE 72 FIRST WHY THEY CAN WIN WHY THEY CAN T WIN WHY THEY CAN'T WIN Picture: DARREN TINDALE Compiled by MICHAEL MANLEY Won this race last year on an interrupted preparation. This year he has not missed a beat and takes far better form into the race. Has the best staying record going into the race and, more impor tantly, the Bart Cummings polish. Has to emulate Makybe Diva by carrying 58kg, which is 5kg more than he carried last year. Other than that, struggling to find a reason. Finished third in this race last year and was unlucky. Meets Viewed 3.5kg better. Turnbull Stakes run two starts ago was sound, finishing only half a length behind Viewed. Yet to run a bad race at Flemington. Well beaten last start in the Caulfield Cup. Hasn't been placed in six runs since last year's Melbourne Cup. One of the best-performed stayers in the race. Ran a brave race when fifth in the Caulfield Cup. The wetter the better for him. One win and one placing from past 10 starts. Drawn out and although he battled away in the Caulfield Cup, hard to see him turning tables on her rivals. Five runs this time in have been excellent, especially his past two runs when sixth in the Caulfield Cup and fifth in the Mackinnon Stakes. Finished an unlucky four th in this race last year. Hasn't won for over two years and 17 star ts and has been placed only twice. Has had two tries at this race already and may have missed his oppor tunity. Tough, well-travelled and well-performed veteran who comes into this as an easy last-star t winner. Two runs over 3200m for two seconds. Will find this harder than recent English performances. Drawn out and may lack the necessary brilliance to win this. Lightly raced, talented stayer who was only beaten in the Caulfield Cup when stablemate Viewed gained fluky rails runs to beat him. Has had a faultless preparation and also carries the Cummings magic touch. Likes the wet. Had a per fect run in the Caulfield Cup but was no match for Viewed. Hard to see him turning the tables on him and may lack the class to take this out. Veteran stayer who finished well with big weight two star ts ago at this track. Last run over 3200m he won the Sydney Cup in April. Veteran who looks safely held at this level. Also has only managed one second from nine star ts at Flemington. Should be improved by his Australian debut, which was sound in the Geelong Cup. Tends to run between hot and cold but has a good strike rate. Not a super eye-catcher at Geelong. Untried at this distance and overseas form is not great. English stayer who is racing well with three wins and two placings from his past five star ts since he joined the Ian Williams' stables. Veteran who does not have form at Group 1 level. Five starts ago he was starting in a claiming event. Front-running stayer who led and battled on well in the Caulfield Cup. Last run over 3200m he thrashed his rivals to win the Adelaide Cup. Also is a winner at Flemington. Weakened in the run home in the Caulfield Cup. Hard to see him being a factor in this class of race. Exciting young stayer who possesses an amazing sprint. Has won four from four this time in. Last star t won the Herber t Power, thrashing Shocking, who then subsequently made his rivals look second rate in winning the Lexus Stakes. Yet to run at Flemington or over a distance fur ther than 2400m. Inexperienced trainer and jockey with inexperienced horse taking on the proven performers. 2009 AJC Derby winner fitter for four runs back from a spell. Fair run last star t in the Caulfield Cup. Comes into contention on favoured wet track. Well beaten at his past two star ts. Did nothing to impress in Caulfield Cup. 2007 Victoria Derby winner on the comeback trail. Showed first glimpse of form for ages with great run in the Moonee Valley Cup. Feature Flemington race winner. On the comeback trail and although he ran well in the Moonee Valley Cup the form from that race is a couple of rungs below what he is taking on here. Put the writing on the wall with fast-finishing effort in the Mackinnon Stakes recording fastest closing sectionals. Needs a firm track. Although he ran well on Saturday he hasn't been placed in nine star ts. Can get fired up and destroy his chances at the star t. Also a query at this level. Free-running, lightly raced, well-performed English stayer who has run well in races that have translated to this race before. In form as last five runs have been good. Beaten by eight lengths at his last star t at Listed level in England. Likes to roll forward and lead but drawn out here and likely to be caught in no man's land. Some slight improvement last star t in the Bendigo Cup. Finished second in the 2008 Auckland Cup, his only run over this distance. Too many reasons spring to mind. Best summed up by saying not good enough. Found his best form last preparation when he got to 3200m and won the Auckland Cup. See above. Racing poorly. Member of the Cumani stable, which just failed to land the Melbourne Cup last year with Bauer. Not much luck in the Geelong Cup when finished nicely from last into the straight. Cumani second stringer who has managed one placing in his past five star ts. Class a query. Winner of the Group 3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes last year. Hasn't had a lot of luck in recent star ts. Not racing in peak form and is a query at this distance and class. Barrier also not a help. Top Kiwi mare who, after striking two sets of trouble in the Caulfield Cup mid-race, ran on well for four th. Doesn't know how to run a bad race. Yet to run over a distance longer than 2400m. Also drawn poorly. Trainer has peaked him perfectly for this. Gave rivals a hiding in the Lexus Stakes in best win in that race for years. Drops 2.5kg on that. Looks a great lightweight chance. Another untried over a distance longer than 2500m. Harder here than Saturday's win and no match for Alcopop in the Herber t Power. Third member of the Cummings stable. Battled on fairly well in Caulfield Cup. Her dam, Luna Tudor, won the 2000 Per th Cup. Weakened in the run home in the Caulfield Cup and has to go an extra 800m here. Not disgraced last start in one of the world's premier staying races, the English St Leger in September. Lightly raced stallion with a lot of potential who will carry a light weight. Has had an interrupted preparation. For a lightly raced English stayer barrier one could be the worst draw possible as he will be cluttered up in the early stages. Tough mare with a fast closing sprint. Last star t, on a track that played to on-pacers, she came from last to win the Geelong Cup. Although she was impressive at Geelong it was hardly a stellar edition of the race. Finished four th in the Bagot on New Year's Day, which is hardly a great form line for a Melbourne Cup. C'EST LA GUERRE MASTER O'REILLY ROMAN EMPEROR CRIME SCENE ZAVITE HARRIS TWEED NEWPORT GALLIONS REACH BASALTICO DAFFODIL ALLEZ WONDER LEICA DING VIEWED FIUMICINO MOURILYAN ISTA KAREEM MUNSEF ALCOPOP KIBBUTZ WARRINGAH SPIN AROUND CAPECOVER SHOCKING CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD MELBOURNE CUP Tomorrow 3pm VIEWED
October 31st 2009
November 3rd 2009